Paul Marcuccitti


 
Paul Marcuccitti is a passionate soccer fan from Australia who will share his views about the World Cup in this column.

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The possible outcomes for your team: Part I



    Before the World Cup finals commenced, I promised a column for around June 10 or 11 which detailed what each team needed from the last round of group matches to advance to the Round of 16 or win its group.

    But, as I tucked into bed after France drew with Uruguay, I realised that Group A was left with infinite permutations and it would take a bit of explanation. The solution? Do this article in two parts. I will cover Groups A, B, E & F now and leave the others for Part II.

    Well, if Group F was the "Group of Death" when the tournament started, perhaps Group A has replaced it. Nigeria is already out so F is down to three teams trying to fill two spots. Group A is different. All four teams are still alive - and any two team combination can still make it to the Second Round. Some of those combinations require quite precise outcomes in both remaining games but they are possibilities nonetheless.

    I will go through the countries in each group and after each team name I will have sections explaining how the team can win the group, qualify for the Second Round or exit the competition. Hopefully, it will all be clear enough and you can print this article and use it as your handy armchair guide while you're watching the final group matches! Just remember, the order of the determinants used for ranking teams is: points, goal difference, goals scored, match result.

    Words of warning: I will not exhaust every single possibility. If I tried, you would stop reading fairly quickly! I won't bother with scenarios that would, for instance, result in the drawing of lots. Some scenarios may seem extremely complex but I'll throw in the occasional example in case you might be wondering what on earth I'm rambling on about. Oh and, from now, it's all technicalities and beautiful prose goes out the window! There's going to be a lot of repetition I'm afraid.


GROUP A
                P  W  D  L   Gls  Pts
Denmark         2  1  1  0   3-2    4
Senegal         2  1  1  0   2-1    4
Uruguay         2  0  1  1   1-2    1
France          2  0  1  1   0-1    1
DENMARK

    Will win group: If it defeats France and Senegal does not defeat Uruguay; Or if it defeats France by a bigger margin than Senegal defeats Uruguay; Or if it defeats France by the same margin that Senegal defeats Uruguay by but scores as many (or more) goals than Senegal (e.g. Denmark 1 France 0 and Senegal 1 Uruguay 0); Or if it draws and Senegal loses; Or if it draws and Senegal draws but Senegal does not score more goals; Or if it loses by one goal and Uruguay defeats Senegal by one goal providing the Uruguay-Senegal result isn't a higher scoring one (e.g. Uruguay 3 Senegal 2 and France 1 Denmark 0 would not just knock the Danes off top spot, it would eliminate them).

    Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with France; Or if it loses by one goal and Uruguay defeats Senegal by one goal providing the Uruguay-Senegal result isn't a higher scoring one.

    Will be eliminated: If it loses by more than one goal; Or if it loses by one goal and Uruguay defeats Senegal by one goal and Senegal scores at least two more goals than Denmark.


SENEGAL

    Will win group: If it defeats Uruguay and Denmark does not defeat France; Or if it defeats Uruguay by a bigger margin than Denmark defeats France; Or if it defeats Uruguay by the same margin that Denmark defeats France by but Senegal scores at least two more goals than Denmark; Or if it draws and Denmark loses; Or if it draws and Denmark draws but it scores at least two more goals than Denmark.

    Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Uruguay; Or if it loses by one goal and France defeats Denmark by one goal and Senegal scores at least two more goals than Denmark.

    Will be eliminated: If it loses unless it loses by one goal and France defeats Denmark by one goal and Senegal scores at least two more than Denmark.


URUGUAY

    Will win group: If it defeats Senegal and France defeats Denmark and Uruguay's winning margin is larger than France's; Or if it defeats Senegal by one goal and France defeats Denmark by one goal and Uruguay scores at least two more goals than France (e.g. again is Uruguay 3 Senegal 2 and France 1 Denmark 0).

    Will qualify for the Second Round: If it wins unless it only wins by a goal and France defeats Denmark by one goal and France scores at least two more goals than Uruguay.

    Will be eliminated: If it draws or loses; Or if it only wins by a goal and France defeats Denmark by one goal and France scores at least two more goals than Uruguay.


FRANCE

    Will win group: If it defeats Denmark and Uruguay defeats Senegal and France's winning margin is larger than Uruguay's; Or if it defeats Denmark and Uruguay defeats Senegal and France's winning margin is the same as Uruguay's provided that France wins by at least two goals and France scored at least two more goals than Uruguay (e.g. France 4 Denmark 2 and Uruguay 2 Senegal 0).

    Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Denmark by two goals; Or if it defeats Denmark by one goal and Uruguay defeats Senegal by one goal and France scores at least two more goals than Uruguay.

    Will be eliminated: If it draws or loses; Or if it only wins by a goal unless Uruguay defeats Senegal by one goal and France scores at least two more goals than Uruguay. (I hope you're still with me after all that!)


GROUP B

                P  W  D  L   Gls  Pts
Spain           2  2  0  0   6-2    6
South Africa    2  1  1  0   3-2    4
Paraguay        2  0  1  1   3-5    1
Slovenia        2  0  0  2   1-4    0
SPAIN

    Will win group: If it defeats or draws with South Africa. Spain has already qualified for the Second Round.

SOUTH AFRICA

    Will win group: If it defeats Spain. Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Spain; Or if it loses to Spain and Paraguay fails to defeat Slovenia; Or if it loses to Spain and Paraguay defeats Slovenia but the combined margin of the two matches is not three or more goals (e.g. Spain 1 South Africa 0 and Paraguay 2 Slovenia 0 would eliminate South Africa); Or if it loses to Spain and Paraguay defeats Slovenia and the combined margin of the two matches is three goals but South Africa still scores more goals than Paraguay (e.g. Spain 4 South Africa 3 and Paraguay 2 Slovenia 0).

    Will be eliminated: If it loses to Spain and Paraguay defeats Slovenia and the combined margin of the two matches is four goals or more; Or if it loses to Spain and Paraguay defeats Slovenia and the combined margin of the two matches is three goals and Paraguay scores more goals than South Africa.

PARAGUAY

    Paraguay can not win the group. Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Slovenia and Spain defeats South Africa and the combined margin of the two matches is four goals; Or if it defeats Slovenia and Spain defeats South Africa and the combined margin of the two matches is three goals provided that Paraguay scores more goals than South Africa.

    Will be eliminated: If it loses to or draws with Slovenia; Or if it defeats Slovenia but South Africa defeats or draws with Spain; Or if it defeats Slovenia and South Africa loses to Spain and the combined margin of the two matches is two goals; Or if it defeats Slovenia and South Africa loses to Spain and the combined margin of the two matches is three goals and South Africa scores more goals than Paraguay.

SLOVENIA

    Slovenia has already been eliminated.


GROUP E

                P  W  D  L   Gls  Pts
Germany         2  1  1  0   9-1    4
Cameroon        2  1  1  0   2-1    4
Ireland         2  0  2  0   2-2    2
Saudi Arabia    2  0  0  2   0-9    0
GERMANY

    Will win group: If it defeats Cameroon; Or if it draws with Cameroon and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia by less than eight goals; Or if it draws with Cameroon and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia by eight goals but Ireland does not score more than six goals more than Germany (e.g. Germany 2 Cameroon 2 and Ireland 8 Saudi Arabia 0).

    Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Cameroon; Or if it loses to Cameroon and Ireland does not defeat Saudi Arabia. Will be eliminated: If it loses to Cameroon and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia.

CAMEROON

    Will win group: If it defeats Germany.

    Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Germany; Or if it draws with Germany and Ireland does not defeat Saudi Arabia by two goals or more; Or if it draws with Germany and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia by one goal but Cameroon scores more goals than Ireland (e.g. Germany 2 Cameroon 2 and Ireland 1 Saudi Arabia 0); Or if it loses to Germany and Ireland fails to defeat Saudi Arabia.

    Will be eliminated: If it loses to Germany and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia; Or if it draws with Germany and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia by at least two goals; Or if it draws with Germany and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia by one goal and Ireland scores more goals than Cameroon.

IRELAND

    Will win group: If it defeats Saudi Arabia by at least nine goals and Germany and Cameroon draw; Or if it defeats Saudi Arabia by eight goals and Germany and Cameroon draw and Ireland scores at least eight more goals than Germany (e.g. Ireland 8 Saudi Arabia 0 and Germany 0 Cameroon 0).

    Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Saudi Arabia by at least two goals; Or if it defeats Saudi Arabia and Germany-Cameroon does not end in a draw; Or if it defeats Saudi Arabia by one goal and Germany-Cameroon ends in a draw but Ireland scores more goals than Cameroon (e.g. Ireland 1 Saudi Arabia 0 and Germany 0 Cameroon 0).

    Will be eliminated: If it loses to or draws with Saudi Arabia; Or if it defeats Saudi Arabia by one goal and Germany and Cameroon draw and Cameroon scores more goals than Ireland.

SAUDI ARABIA

    Saudi Arabia has already been eliminated.


GROUP F

                P  W  D  L   Gls  Pts
Sweden          2  1  1  0   3-2    4
England         2  1  1  0   2-1    4
Argentina       2  1  0  1   1-1    3
Nigeria         2  0  0  2   1-3    0
SWEDEN

    Will win group: If it defeats Argentina and England does not defeat Nigeria; Or if it defeats Argentina by a bigger margin than England defeats Nigeria; Or if it defeats Argentina by the same margin that England defeats Nigeria by and England does not score more goals than Sweden (e.g. Sweden 1 Argentina 0 and England 1 Nigeria 0); Or if it draws with Argentina and England loses to Nigeria; Or if it draws with Argentina and England draws with Nigeria and England does not score more goals than Sweden.

    Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Argentina; Or if it loses to Argentina and England loses to Nigeria and England loses by a bigger margin; Or if it loses to Argentina and England loses to Nigeria by the same margin but England does not score more goals than Sweden.

    Will be eliminated: If it loses to Argentina and England defeats or draws with Nigeria; Or if it loses to Argentina and England loses to Nigeria and Sweden loses by a bigger margin than England does; Or if it loses to Argentina by the same margin that England loses to Nigeria by but England scores at least two more goals than Sweden (e.g. Argentina 1 Sweden 0 and Nigeria 3 England 2).

ENGLAND

    Will win group: If it defeats Nigeria and Sweden does not defeat Argentina; Or if it defeats Nigeria by a bigger margin than Sweden defeats Argentina by; Or if it defeats Nigeria by the same margin that Sweden defeats Argentina by and England scores at least two more goals than Sweden; Or if it draws with Nigeria and Sweden draws with Argentina and England scores at least two more goals than Sweden.

    Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Nigeria; Or if it loses to Nigeria and Argentina loses to Sweden; Or if it loses to Nigeria by one goal and Argentina draws with Sweden and Argentina does not score at least two more goals than England (e.g. Nigeria 1 England 0 and Sweden 0 Argentina 0); Or if it loses to Nigeria by a smaller margin than Sweden loses to Argentina by; Or if it loses to Nigeria by the same margin that Sweden loses to Argentina by and England scores more goals than Sweden.

    Will be eliminated: If it loses to Nigeria and Argentina defeats Sweden and England loses by a greater margin than Sweden; Or if it loses to Nigeria by the same margin that Sweden loses to Argentina by and England fails to score more goals than Sweden; Or if it loses to Nigeria by at least two goals and Argentina draws with Sweden; Or if it loses to Nigeria by one goal and Argentina draws with Sweden and Argentina scores at least two more goals than England (e.g. Argentina 2 Sweden 2 and Nigeria 1 England 0).

ARGENTINA

    Will win group: If it defeats Sweden and England does not defeat Nigeria. Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Sweden; Or if it draws with Sweden and England loses to Nigeria by at least two goals; Or if it draws with Sweden and England loses to Nigeria by one goal and Argentina scores at least two more goals than England.

    Will be eliminated: If it loses to Sweden; Or if it draws with Sweden and England does not lose to Nigeria; Or if it draws with Sweden and England loses to Nigeria by one goal and Argentina does not score at least two more goals than England.

NIGERIA

    Nigeria has already been eliminated.


 

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