Paul Marcuccitti is a passionate
soccer fan from Australia who will share his views about the World Cup in this column.
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The possible outcomes for your team: Part I
Before the World Cup finals commenced, I promised a column for around June
10 or 11 which detailed what each team needed from the last round of group
matches to advance to the Round of 16 or win its group.
But, as I tucked into bed after France drew with Uruguay, I realised that
Group A was left with infinite permutations and it would take a bit of
explanation. The solution? Do this article in two parts. I will cover Groups
A, B, E & F now and leave the others for Part II.
Well, if Group F was the "Group of Death" when the tournament started,
perhaps Group A has replaced it. Nigeria is already out so F is down to
three teams trying to fill two spots. Group A is different. All four teams
are still alive - and any two team combination can still make it to the
Second Round. Some of those combinations require quite precise outcomes in
both remaining games but they are possibilities nonetheless.
I will go through the countries in each group and after each team name I
will have sections explaining how the team can win the group, qualify for
the Second Round or exit the competition. Hopefully, it will all be clear
enough and you can print this article and use it as your handy armchair
guide while you're watching the final group matches! Just remember, the
order of the determinants used for ranking teams is: points, goal
difference, goals scored, match result.
Words of warning: I will not exhaust every single possibility. If I tried,
you would stop reading fairly quickly! I won't bother with scenarios that
would, for instance, result in the drawing of lots. Some scenarios may seem
extremely complex but I'll throw in the occasional example in case you might
be wondering what on earth I'm rambling on about. Oh and, from now, it's all
technicalities and beautiful prose goes out the window! There's going to be
a lot of repetition I'm afraid.
GROUP A
P W D L Gls Pts
Denmark 2 1 1 0 3-2 4
Senegal 2 1 1 0 2-1 4
Uruguay 2 0 1 1 1-2 1
France 2 0 1 1 0-1 1
DENMARK
Will win group: If it defeats France and Senegal does not defeat Uruguay; Or
if it defeats France by a bigger margin than Senegal defeats Uruguay; Or if
it defeats France by the same margin that Senegal defeats Uruguay by but
scores as many (or more) goals than Senegal (e.g. Denmark 1 France 0 and
Senegal 1 Uruguay 0); Or if it draws and Senegal loses; Or if it draws and
Senegal draws but Senegal does not score more goals; Or if it loses by one
goal and Uruguay defeats Senegal by one goal providing the Uruguay-Senegal
result isn't a higher scoring one (e.g. Uruguay 3 Senegal 2 and France 1
Denmark 0 would not just knock the Danes off top spot, it would eliminate
them).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with France; Or if
it loses by one goal and Uruguay defeats Senegal by one goal providing the
Uruguay-Senegal result isn't a higher scoring one.
Will be eliminated: If it loses by more than one goal; Or if it loses by one
goal and Uruguay defeats Senegal by one goal and Senegal scores at least two
more goals than Denmark.
SENEGAL
Will win group: If it defeats Uruguay and Denmark does not defeat France; Or
if it defeats Uruguay by a bigger margin than Denmark defeats France; Or if
it defeats Uruguay by the same margin that Denmark defeats France by but
Senegal scores at least two more goals than Denmark; Or if it draws and
Denmark loses; Or if it draws and Denmark draws but it scores at least two
more goals than Denmark.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Uruguay; Or
if it loses by one goal and France defeats Denmark by one goal and Senegal
scores at least two more goals than Denmark.
Will be eliminated: If it loses unless it loses by one goal and France
defeats Denmark by one goal and Senegal scores at least two more than
Denmark.
URUGUAY
Will win group: If it defeats Senegal and France defeats Denmark and
Uruguay's winning margin is larger than France's; Or if it defeats Senegal
by one goal and France defeats Denmark by one goal and Uruguay scores at
least two more goals than France (e.g. again is Uruguay 3 Senegal 2 and
France 1 Denmark 0).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it wins unless it only wins by a goal
and France defeats Denmark by one goal and France scores at least two more
goals than Uruguay.
Will be eliminated: If it draws or loses; Or if it only wins by a goal and
France defeats Denmark by one goal and France scores at least two more goals
than Uruguay.
FRANCE
Will win group: If it defeats Denmark and Uruguay defeats Senegal and
France's winning margin is larger than Uruguay's; Or if it defeats Denmark
and Uruguay defeats Senegal and France's winning margin is the same as
Uruguay's provided that France wins by at least two goals and France scored
at least two more goals than Uruguay (e.g. France 4 Denmark 2 and Uruguay 2
Senegal 0).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Denmark by two goals; Or if
it defeats Denmark by one goal and Uruguay defeats Senegal by one goal and
France scores at least two more goals than Uruguay.
Will be eliminated: If it draws or loses; Or if it only wins by a goal
unless Uruguay defeats Senegal by one goal and France scores at least two
more goals than Uruguay. (I hope you're still with me after all that!)
GROUP B
P W D L Gls Pts
Spain 2 2 0 0 6-2 6
South Africa 2 1 1 0 3-2 4
Paraguay 2 0 1 1 3-5 1
Slovenia 2 0 0 2 1-4 0
SPAIN
Will win group: If it defeats or draws with South Africa.
Spain has already qualified for the Second Round.
SOUTH AFRICA
Will win group: If it defeats Spain.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Spain; Or if
it loses to Spain and Paraguay fails to defeat Slovenia; Or if it loses to
Spain and Paraguay defeats Slovenia but the combined margin of the two
matches is not three or more goals (e.g. Spain 1 South Africa 0 and Paraguay
2 Slovenia 0 would eliminate South Africa); Or if it loses to Spain and
Paraguay defeats Slovenia and the combined margin of the two matches is
three goals but South Africa still scores more goals than Paraguay (e.g.
Spain 4 South Africa 3 and Paraguay 2 Slovenia 0).
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Spain and Paraguay defeats Slovenia and
the combined margin of the two matches is four goals or more; Or if it loses
to Spain and Paraguay defeats Slovenia and the combined margin of the two
matches is three goals and Paraguay scores more goals than South Africa.
PARAGUAY
Paraguay can not win the group.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Slovenia and Spain defeats
South Africa and the combined margin of the two matches is four goals; Or if
it defeats Slovenia and Spain defeats South Africa and the combined margin
of the two matches is three goals provided that Paraguay scores more goals
than South Africa.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to or draws with Slovenia; Or if it defeats
Slovenia but South Africa defeats or draws with Spain; Or if it defeats
Slovenia and South Africa loses to Spain and the combined margin of the two
matches is two goals; Or if it defeats Slovenia and South Africa loses to
Spain and the combined margin of the two matches is three goals and South
Africa scores more goals than Paraguay.
SLOVENIA
Slovenia has already been eliminated.
GROUP E
P W D L Gls Pts
Germany 2 1 1 0 9-1 4
Cameroon 2 1 1 0 2-1 4
Ireland 2 0 2 0 2-2 2
Saudi Arabia 2 0 0 2 0-9 0
GERMANY
Will win group: If it defeats Cameroon; Or if it draws with Cameroon and
Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia by less than eight goals; Or if it draws with
Cameroon and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia by eight goals but Ireland does
not score more than six goals more than Germany (e.g. Germany 2 Cameroon 2
and Ireland 8 Saudi Arabia 0).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Cameroon; Or
if it loses to Cameroon and Ireland does not defeat Saudi Arabia.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Cameroon and Ireland defeats Saudi
Arabia.
CAMEROON
Will win group: If it defeats Germany.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Germany; Or if it draws
with Germany and Ireland does not defeat Saudi Arabia by two goals or more;
Or if it draws with Germany and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia by one goal but
Cameroon scores more goals than Ireland (e.g. Germany 2 Cameroon 2 and
Ireland 1 Saudi Arabia 0); Or if it loses to Germany and Ireland fails to
defeat Saudi Arabia.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Germany and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia;
Or if it draws with Germany and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia by at least two
goals; Or if it draws with Germany and Ireland defeats Saudi Arabia by one
goal and Ireland scores more goals than Cameroon.
IRELAND
Will win group: If it defeats Saudi Arabia by at least nine goals and
Germany and Cameroon draw; Or if it defeats Saudi Arabia by eight goals and
Germany and Cameroon draw and Ireland scores at least eight more goals than
Germany (e.g. Ireland 8 Saudi Arabia 0 and Germany 0 Cameroon 0).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Saudi Arabia by at least
two goals; Or if it defeats Saudi Arabia and Germany-Cameroon does not end
in a draw; Or if it defeats Saudi Arabia by one goal and Germany-Cameroon
ends in a draw but Ireland scores more goals than Cameroon (e.g. Ireland 1
Saudi Arabia 0 and Germany 0 Cameroon 0).
Will be eliminated: If it loses to or draws with Saudi Arabia; Or if it
defeats Saudi Arabia by one goal and Germany and Cameroon draw and Cameroon
scores more goals than Ireland.
SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi Arabia has already been eliminated.
GROUP F
P W D L Gls Pts
Sweden 2 1 1 0 3-2 4
England 2 1 1 0 2-1 4
Argentina 2 1 0 1 1-1 3
Nigeria 2 0 0 2 1-3 0
SWEDEN
Will win group: If it defeats Argentina and England does not defeat Nigeria;
Or if it defeats Argentina by a bigger margin than England defeats Nigeria;
Or if it defeats Argentina by the same margin that England defeats Nigeria
by and England does not score more goals than Sweden (e.g. Sweden 1
Argentina 0 and England 1 Nigeria 0); Or if it draws with Argentina and
England loses to Nigeria; Or if it draws with Argentina and England draws
with Nigeria and England does not score more goals than Sweden.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Argentina; Or
if it loses to Argentina and England loses to Nigeria and England loses by a
bigger margin; Or if it loses to Argentina and England loses to Nigeria by
the same margin but England does not score more goals than Sweden.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Argentina and England defeats or draws
with Nigeria; Or if it loses to Argentina and England loses to Nigeria and
Sweden loses by a bigger margin than England does; Or if it loses to
Argentina by the same margin that England loses to Nigeria by but England
scores at least two more goals than Sweden (e.g. Argentina 1 Sweden 0 and
Nigeria 3 England 2).
ENGLAND
Will win group: If it defeats Nigeria and Sweden does not defeat Argentina;
Or if it defeats Nigeria by a bigger margin than Sweden defeats Argentina
by; Or if it defeats Nigeria by the same margin that Sweden defeats
Argentina by and England scores at least two more goals than Sweden; Or if
it draws with Nigeria and Sweden draws with Argentina and England scores at
least two more goals than Sweden.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Nigeria; Or
if it loses to Nigeria and Argentina loses to Sweden; Or if it loses to
Nigeria by one goal and Argentina draws with Sweden and Argentina does not
score at least two more goals than England (e.g. Nigeria 1 England 0 and
Sweden 0 Argentina 0); Or if it loses to Nigeria by a smaller margin than
Sweden loses to Argentina by; Or if it loses to Nigeria by the same margin
that Sweden loses to Argentina by and England scores more goals than Sweden.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Nigeria and Argentina defeats Sweden and
England loses by a greater margin than Sweden; Or if it loses to Nigeria by
the same margin that Sweden loses to Argentina by and England fails to score
more goals than Sweden; Or if it loses to Nigeria by at least two goals and
Argentina draws with Sweden; Or if it loses to Nigeria by one goal and
Argentina draws with Sweden and Argentina scores at least two more goals
than England (e.g. Argentina 2 Sweden 2 and Nigeria 1 England 0).
ARGENTINA
Will win group: If it defeats Sweden and England does not defeat Nigeria.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Sweden; Or if it draws with
Sweden and England loses to Nigeria by at least two goals; Or if it draws
with Sweden and England loses to Nigeria by one goal and Argentina scores at
least two more goals than England.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Sweden; Or if it draws with Sweden and
England does not lose to Nigeria; Or if it draws with Sweden and England
loses to Nigeria by one goal and Argentina does not score at least two more
goals than England.
NIGERIA
Nigeria has already been eliminated.
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