Paul Marcuccitti is a passionate
soccer fan from Australia who will share his views about the World Cup in this column.
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The possible outcomes for your team: Part II
And now to Part II of the possible outcomes series - a couple of articles
devoted to people as deranged as I am. But first, with your indulgence, I'd
like to have a really big whinge.
Why is it that more than a few commentators - who you'd think would know
better - continue to say that teams are going to be eliminated at the end of
a game when they actually won't be? (Or that teams have qualified for the
next round when they actually haven't?)
Now, you could have watched the Mexico-Ecuador match anywhere in the world
so I don't know who brought the game to you but Australians heard a
commentator tell them (at least twice) that Ecuador would be "eliminated" if
it lost to Mexico and that a win for the Mexicans would put them through to
the next round. Fortunately, after the match finished, the chaps in the
studio got it right. Although their position is rather bleak, the
Ecuadorians have not been eliminated yet.
It is possible for a team to qualify for the Second Round with one win and
two losses because three teams in a group can each record one win and two
losses - one of them must advance. Similarly, three teams can each score two
wins and one loss so Mexico isn't in the last 16 yet. In 1994, two of the
six groups at the World Cup finals ended with three teams on two wins and a
loss. They all qualified for the next round because, in that tournament, the
four best third place getters were allowed through to the last 16. But if it
happens in Group G, make no mistake, someone (possibly even Mexico) is going
home with two wins.
All of this seems so obvious to me, yet a bloke who is, presumably, getting
paid to inform the watching public gets it so wrong. So if you happen to be
reading this Alan Parry, please do your homework in the future and don't
mislead the viewers again. Then again, I suppose you are not the first and
will not be the last.
Anyway, now that I have that off my chest, it's time for a few statistics:
After every team had played twice, no team had wrapped up victory in its
group while at the same stage of France '98, two teams (France and Nigeria)
had already won their group. Only two teams were already sure of a place in
the Round of 16 (Brazil and Spain) - that's down from seven at the same
stage of France '98. Finally, five countries were already eliminated - down
from six at France '98.
So that's a whopping 25 countries (out of 32) that are going into (or went
into) their last match with the possibility of both survival and elimination
- up from 19 at France '98. And not one of the last 16 group matches is (or
has been) a meaningless game. Fantastic!
On to Groups C, D, G & H. The same caveats apply.
GROUP C
P W D L Gls Pts
Brazil 2 2 0 0 6-1 6
Costa Rica 2 1 1 0 3-1 4
Turkey 2 0 1 1 2-3 1
China 2 0 0 2 0-6 0
BRAZIL
Will win group: If it defeats or draws with Costa Rica.
Brazil has already qualified for the Second Round.
COSTA RICA
Will win group: If it defeats Brazil.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Brazil; Or if
it loses to Brazil and Turkey fails to defeat China; Or if it loses to
Brazil and Turkey defeats China but the combined margin of the two matches
is not three or more goals (e.g. Brazil 1 Costa Rica 0 and Turkey 2 China 0
would eliminate Costa Rica); Or if it loses to Brazil and Turkey defeats
China and the combined margin of the two matches is three goals but Turkey
does not score more goals than Costa Rica (e.g. Brazil 3 Costa Rica 2 and
Turkey 2 China 0).
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Brazil and Turkey defeats China and the
combined margin of the two matches is four goals or more; Or if it loses to
Brazil and Turkey defeats China and the combined margin of the two matches
is three goals and Turkey scores at least two more goals than Costa Rica.
TURKEY
Turkey can not win the group.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats China and Brazil defeats
Costa Rica and the combined margin of the two matches is at least four
goals; Or if it defeats China and Brazil defeats Costa Rica and the combined
margin of the two matches is three goals provided that Turkey scores at
least two more goals than Costa Rica.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to or draws with China; Or if it defeats
China but Costa Rica defeats or draws with Brazil; Or if it defeats China
and Costa Rica loses to Brazil and the combined margin of the two matches is
two goals; Or if it defeats China and Costa Rica loses to Brazil and the
combined margin of the two matches is three goals and Turkey does not score
more goals than Costa Rica.
CHINA
China has already been eliminated.
GROUP D
P W D L Gls Pts
South Korea 2 1 1 0 3-1 4
USA 2 1 1 0 4-3 4
Portugal 2 1 0 1 6-3 3
Poland 2 0 0 2 0-6 0
SOUTH KOREA
Will win group: If it defeats Portugal and the USA does not defeat Poland;
Or if it defeats Portugal and the USA defeats Poland and the USA does not
win by a bigger margin than South Korea wins by; Or if it defeats Portugal
by one goal less than the USA defeats Poland by provided that South Korea
scores at least two more goals than the USA (e.g. South Korea 4 Portugal 3
and USA 2 Poland 0); Or if it draws with Portugal and the USA fails to
defeat Poland.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Portugal; Or
if it loses to Portugal and the USA loses to Poland and South Korea does not
lose by a greater margin than Poland loses by; Or if loses to Portugal by
one more goal than the USA loses to Poland by provided that South Korea
scores at least two more goals than Poland (e.g. Portugal 4 South Korea 2
and Poland 1 USA 0).
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Portugal and the USA defeats or draws
with Poland; Or if it loses to Portugal and the USA loses to Poland and
South Korea loses by a bigger margin than the USA loses by; Or if it loses
to Portugal by one more goal than the USA loses to Poland by and South Korea
fails to score more goals than the USA (e.g. Portugal 2 South Korea 0 and
Poland 1 USA 0).
USA
Will win group: If it defeats Poland and South Korea does not defeat
Portugal; Or if it defeats Poland by at least two more goals than South
Korea defeats Portugal by; Or if it defeats Poland by one more goal than
South Korea defeats Portugal by provided that South Korea does not score
more goals than the USA (e.g. USA 2 Poland 0 and South Korea 1 Portugal 0).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Poland; Or if
it loses to Poland and Portugal loses to South Korea; Or if it loses to
Poland and Portugal defeats South Korea by two more goals than Poland
defeats the USA by (e.g. Portugal 3 South Korea 0 and Poland 1 USA 0); Or if
it loses to Poland by one more goal than South Korea loses to Portugal by
provided that South Korea does not score more goals than the USA.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Poland and Portugal and South Korea draw;
Or if it loses to Poland and Portugal defeats South Korea unless Portugal
defeats South Korea by at least two more goals than Poland defeats the USA
by; Or if it loses to Poland and Portugal defeats South Korea unless
Portugal defeats South Korea by one more goal than Poland defeats the USA by
and South Korea does not score more goals than Poland (e.g. Portugal 2 South
Korea 0 and Poland 1 USA 0 would mean that the USA survives).
PORTUGAL
Will win group: If it defeats South Korea and the USA fails to defeat
Poland.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats South Korea; Or if it draws
with South Korea and the USA loses to Poland.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to South Korea; Or if it draws with South
Korea and the USA defeats or draws with Poland.
POLAND
Poland has already been eliminated.
GROUP G
P W D L Gls Pts
Mexico 2 2 0 0 3-1 6
Italy 2 1 0 1 3-2 3
Croatia 2 1 0 1 2-2 3
Ecuador 2 0 0 2 1-4 0
MEXICO
Will win group: If it defeats or draws with Italy.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Italy; Or if
it loses to Italy and Croatia fails to defeat Ecuador; Or if it loses to
Italy by one goal and Croatia defeats Ecuador by one goal and Croatia does
not score at least two more goals than Mexico (e.g. Italy 1 Mexico 0 and
Croatia 2 Ecuador 1 would eliminate Mexico).
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Italy and Croatia defeats Ecuador and the
combined margin of the two matches is three or more goals; Or if it loses to
Italy by one goal and Croatia defeats Ecuador by one goal and Croatia scores
at least two more goals than Mexico.
ITALY
Will win group: If it defeats Mexico and Croatia fails to defeat Ecuador; Or
if it defeats Mexico and Croatia defeats Ecuador provided that Croatia does
not win by a bigger margin than Italy does (e.g. Italy 1 Mexico 0 and
Croatia 2 Ecuador 0 would see Croatia win the group).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Mexico; Or if it draws with
Mexico and Croatia fails to defeat Ecuador; Or if it loses to Mexico and
Ecuador defeats Croatia provided that Italy doesn't lose by a bigger margin
than Croatia loses by* and also provided that the combined margin of the two
games is not five goals or more (e.g. Mexico 2 Italy 0 and Ecuador 3 Croatia
0 would eliminate Italy); Or if it loses to Mexico and Ecuador defeats
Croatia and Italy doesn't lose by a bigger margin than Croatia loses by* and
the combined margin of the two games is four goals but Ecuador does not
score at least three more goals than Italy (e.g. Mexico 2 Italy 0 and
Ecuador 2 Croatia 0). *In these scenarios, Italy can qualify if it loses by only one more goal
than Croatia loses by but only if Croatia does not score more goals than
Italy (e.g. Mexico 2 Italy 0 and Ecuador 1 Croatia 0 would mean that Italy
qualified but Mexico 2 Italy 0 and Ecuador 2 Croatia 1 would mean Italy
being eliminated).
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Mexico and Croatia does not lose to
Ecuador; Or if it loses to Mexico by a bigger margin than Croatia loses to
Ecuador by; Or if it loses to Mexico by the same margin that Croatia loses
to Ecuador by and Croatia scores more goals than Italy; Or if it loses to
Mexico and Croatia loses to Ecuador and the combined margin of the two games
is five goals or more; Or if it loses to Mexico and Croatia loses to Ecuador
and the combined margin of the two games is four goals and Ecuador scores at
least three more goals than Italy; Or if it draws with Mexico and Croatia
defeats Ecuador.
CROATIA
Will win group: If it defeats Ecuador and Italy defeats Mexico provided that
Croatia wins by at least two more goals than Italy wins by (e.g. Croatia 3
Ecuador 0 and Italy 1 Mexico 0); Or if it defeats Ecuador by one more goal
than Italy defeats Mexico by provided that Croatia also scores one more goal
than Italy (e.g. Croatia 2 Ecuador 0 and Italy 1 Mexico 0 would put Croatia
top but Croatia 2 Ecuador 0 and Italy 2 Mexico 1 would put Italy on top).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Ecuador by at least two
goals; Or if it defeats Ecuador by one goal provided that Italy doesn't
defeat Mexico by a single goal; Or if it defeats Ecuador by one goal and
Italy defeats Mexico by one goal and the Croatia-Ecuador result is a higher
scoring one (e.g. Croatia 2 Ecuador 1 and Italy 1 Mexico 0 would mean
qualification for Croatia but Croatia 1 Ecuador 0 and Italy 1 Mexico 0 would
mean elimination); Or if it draws with Ecuador and Mexico defeats Italy; Or
if it loses to Ecuador by one goal and Mexico defeats Italy by at least
three goals; Or if it loses to Ecuador by one goal and Mexico defeats Italy
by two goals provided that Croatia scores more goals than Italy (e.g. Mexico
2 Italy 0 and Ecuador 2 Croatia 1).
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Ecuador by at least two goals; Or if it
loses to Ecuador and Italy draws with or defeats Mexico; Or if it loses to
Ecuador by one goal and Mexico defeats Italy by only one goal; Or if it
loses to Ecuador by one goal and Mexico defeats Italy by two goals and
Croatia fails to score more goals than Italy; Or if it draws with Ecuador
and Italy draws with or defeats Mexico; Or if it defeats Ecuador by one goal
and Italy defeats Mexico by one goal and Croatia fails to score at least two
more goals than Mexico.
ECUADOR
Ecuador can not win the group.
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Croatia by at least two
goals and Mexico defeats Italy and the combined margin of the two matches is
at least five goals; Or if it defeats Croatia by at least two goals and
Mexico defeats Italy and the combined margin of the two matches is four
goals provided that Ecuador scores at least three more goals than Italy.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to or draws with Croatia; Or if it only
defeats Croatia by one goal; Or if it defeats Croatia by two or more goals
and Italy does not lose to Mexico; Or if it defeats Croatia by two or more
goals and Mexico defeats Italy and the combined margin of the two games is
less than four goals; Or if it defeats Croatia by two or more goals and
Mexico defeats Italy and the combined margin of the two games is four goals
and Ecuador fails to score at least three more goals than Italy.
GROUP H
P W D L Gls Pts
Japan 2 1 1 0 3-2 4
Russia 2 1 0 1 2-1 3
Belgium 2 0 2 0 3-3 2
Tunisia 2 0 1 1 1-3 1
JAPAN
Will win group: If it defeats Tunisia; Or if it draws with Tunisia and
Russia and Belgium draw; Or if it draws with Tunisia and Belgium defeats
Russia by one goal provided that Japan scores more goals than Belgium (e.g.
Japan 2 Tunisia 2 and Belgium 1 Russia 0).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Tunisia; Or
if it loses to Tunisia by one goal.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Tunisia by at least two goals.
RUSSIA
Will win group: If it defeats Belgium and Japan fails to defeat Tunisia; Or
if it draws with Belgium and Tunisia defeats Japan by one or two goals; Or
if it draws with Belgium and Tunisia defeats Japan by three goals provided
that Tunisia does not score at least two more goals than Russia (e.g. Russia
2 Belgium 2 and Tunisia 3 Japan 0).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats or draws with Belgium.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to Belgium.
BELGIUM
Will win group: If it defeats Russia and Japan loses to Tunisia; Or if it
defeats Russia by two goals and Japan draws with Tunisia; Or if it defeats
Russia by one goal and Japan draws with Tunisia and Belgium scores more
goals than Japan (e.g. Belgium 1 Russia 0 and Japan 0 Tunisia 0).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Russia.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to or draws with Russia.
TUNISIA
Will win group: If it defeats Japan by at least four goals and Russia draws
with Belgium; Or if it defeats Japan by three goals and Russia draws with
Belgium provided that Tunisia scores at least two more goals than Russia
(e.g. Tunisia 3 Japan 0 and Russia 1 Belgium 1).
Will qualify for the Second Round: If it defeats Japan by at least two
goals.
Will be eliminated: If it loses to or draws with Japan; Or if it defeats
Japan by one goal.
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