Paul Marcuccitti is a passionate
soccer fan from Australia who will share his views about the World Cup in this column.
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Who will be seeded at Germany 2006: Dutch need Spaniards to stumble
Earlier this year, I wrote Who will be seeded at Germany 2006: An update which showed that Brazil, Spain, England, Italy, Germany, Mexico, Argentina and France continued to be the likely seeds for next year’s World Cup finals if they all qualified.
After the 2002 finals, my original column on the subject (Who will be seeded at Germany 2006) also had those teams in the top 8 places on a table that was calculated using the formula FIFA has used to determine seeds in recent World Cups. That formula is based on results at previous World Cups (worth 50%) and FIFA World Rankings (also worth 50%).
At the time, I had to make assumptions about future World Rankings and which 32 teams might qualify. Changes have been needed since then but the 50% allocated to previous World Cups was already a known.
FIFA is not obliged to use this system for 2006 and I have argued that if the calculations don’t continue to deliver what the sport’s governors would regard as an acceptable group of seeds, they would change the method of calculation to suit.
But it looks like that won’t be necessary because 7 of the 8 likely teams have qualified. Only Spain still needs to book its place and it has another chance in next month’s playoff against Slovakia. If the Spaniards fail, Netherlands replaces them among the seeds.
In 2002, I had the USA in 9th place on the table used for determining seeds. Earlier this year, the Americans had dropped to 10th (due to World Rankings changes). The USA was always going to be the system’s litmus test.
The Mexicans have never before been seeded (except as tournament hosts in 1986), but I have never felt that FIFA would try to manipulate the system to exclude them from being seeded in 2006. They have reached the Second Round in each of the last 3 World Cups.
However I’m certain that FIFA would not accept seeding Mexico and USA. Under the existing system for determining the 8 seeds, that would have been on the cards if two of Brazil, Spain, England, Italy, Argentina, France and Netherlands failed to qualify. But all except Spain are now confirmed for the finals.
When England defeated Poland recently to clinch victory in its qualifying group, English media posed the question: Would winning the group ensure that England would be seeded? FIFA said that it wouldn’t decide until a few days before the draw in Leipzig in December.
You can understand English anxiety. They were not seeded in either 1998 or 2002 (largely because they failed to qualify for the 1994 finals). Consequently, they drew difficult groups in both tournaments.
Without major changes to the system used to determine the 8 seeds, whether or not England (or any European team) qualified by winning its group is a matter of little relevance. In the last World Cup, England won its qualifying group ahead of Germany which forced the latter to qualify through a playoff against Ukraine. But for the finals, Germany was seeded and England wasn’t.
Now I know that as soon as you saw the title of this column, you really didn’t want to read words, you wanted to see numbers. So let’s get to the stats.
First, we have to update the group of 32 teams for our tables. We now have 27 qualifiers and 10 teams about to playoff for the last 5 places. It’s not really possible to put 37 teams in the table – it upsets the calculations – so I have to choose 5 playoff winners. I’m going to do that by selecting the more highly ranked team. That means: Spain (over Slovakia), Turkey (over Switzerland), Czech Republic (over Norway), Trinidad & Tobago (over Bahrain) and, regrettably, Uruguay (over Australia). Still, if the 5 bottom ranked teams all win, it won’t make any real difference to the top places in the table.
Out of the final table from Who will be seeded at Germany 2006: An update go: Denmark (11th position on that table), Ireland (14th), Nigeria (18th), Belgium (20th), Cameroon (21st), Romania (22nd), Senegal (equal 23rd), Russia (27th), South Africa (28th), Chile (31st) and Bahrain (32nd). Obviously Bahrain might return.
Replacing those teams are: Czech Republic, Portugal, Uruguay, Poland, Serbia & Montenegro, Ukraine, Ivory Coast, Trinidad & Tobago, Ghana, Angola and Togo.
If we could assume that this system for determining seeds will continue, we could say that, by failing to qualify, Denmark might have blown a great chance to win a place among the seeds for 2010.
We’ll start by looking at the Previous World Cups score. I won’t repeat the calculations as you can see them in Who will be seeded at Germany 2006.
Brazil 31.67
Germany 28.83
Italy 23.50
England 21.50
Spain 21.17
Mexico 21.00
Korea PR 18.67
USA 18.33
Argentina 17.33
Sweden 15.00
Turkey 15.00
Paraguay 14.83
France 14.67
Japan 14.67
Croatia 14.50
Netherlands 14.00
Saudi Arabia 10.17
Serbia & Montenegro 7.67
Tunisia 6.67
Costa Rica 4.50
Portugal 4.50
Uruguay 4.50
Ecuador 4.00
Poland 4.00
Iran 3.00
Angola 0.00
Czech Republic 0.00
Ghana 0.00
Ivory Coast 0.00
Togo 0.00
Trinidad & Tobago 0.00
Ukraine 0.00
* Serbia & Montenegro was listed as Yugoslavia in the original column.
Now, let’s look at the points each team receives from FIFA World Rankings. One third is earned in the December 2003 Rankings, one third is from December 2004 and one third will be from November 2005. We’re less than a month away from the November 2005 Rankings so I have to use this month’s. (And I doubt that there’ll be many big changes.)
2003 2004 2005
WR ER Pts WR ER Pts WR ER Pts RP
BRA 1 1 32 1 1 32 1 1 32 32.00
FRA 2 2 31 2 2 31 5 5 28 30.00
ARG 5 5 28 3 3 30 4 4 29 29.00
NED 4 4 29 6 6 27 2 2 31 29.00
CZE 6 6 27 4 4 29 3 3 30 28.67
SPA 3 3 30 5 5 28 8 8 25 27.67
MEX 7 7 26 7 7 26 6 6 27 26.33
ENG 8 =8 24.5 8 8 25 =9 =9 23.5 24.33
USA 11 11 22 11 11 22 7 7 26 23.33
POR 17 =13 19.5 9 9 24 =9 =9 23.5 22.33
ITA 10 10 23 10 10 23 12 12 21 22.33
TUR 8 =8 24.5 14 13 20 11 11 22 22.17
SWE 19 15 18 13 12 21 13 13 20 19.67
GER 12 12 21 19 16 17 15 14 19 19.00
URU 21 17 16 16 14 19 17 16 17 17.33
CRO 20 16 17 23 19 14 19 17 16 15.67
CRC 17 =13 19.5 27 21 12 20 18 15 15.50
JPN 29 23 10 17 15 18 16 15 18 15.33
IRN 28 22 11 20 17 16 21 19 14 13.67
KOR 22 =18 14.5 22 18 15 29 22 11 13.50
POL 25 20 13 25 20 13 23 20 13 13.00
PAR 22 =18 14.5 30 23 10 33 24 9 11.17
KSA 26 21 12 28 22 11 31 23 10 11.00
TUN 45 26 7 35 24 9 27 21 12 9.33
ECU 37 24 9 39 25 8 36 25 8 8.33
SCG 41 25 8 46 27 6 42 27 6 6.67
UKR 60 27 6 57 28 5 39 26 7 6.00
IVR 70 =28 4.5 40 26 7 48 28 5 5.50
TRI 70 =28 4.5 63 29 4 53 31 2 3.50
GHA 78 30 3 77 31 2 51 30 3 2.67
ANG 83 31 2 72 30 3 60 32 1 2.00
TOG 94 32 1 89 32 1 49 29 4 2.00
NB: WR = World Ranking, ER = Effective Ranking, Pts = Ranking Points (for each individual year) and RP = Ranking Points (final). The final Ranking Points are calculated by adding the total points gained from the 3 years and then dividing by 3.
A reminder about the Effective Ranking: The 32 teams that qualify are not the 32 highest ranked teams in the world. So, for the purpose of determining seeds, they are re-ranked in each year from 1 to 32.
Now we complete the exercise by adding the scores from previous World Cups and Rankings.
PWC RP Total Move
1 Brazil 31.67 32.00 63.67 -
2 Spain 21.17 27.67 48.83 -
3 Germany 28.83 19.00 47.83 Up 2
4 Mexico 21.00 26.33 47.33 Up 2
5 Argentina 17.33 29.00 46.33 Up 2
=6 England 21.50 24.33 45.83 Down 3
=6 Italy 23.50 22.33 45.83 Down 3
8 France 14.67 30.00 44.67 -
9 Netherlands 14.00 29.00 43.00 -
10 USA 18.33 23.33 41.67 -
11 Turkey 15.00 22.17 37.17 Up 1
12 Sweden 15.00 19.67 34.67 Up 1
13 Korea PR 18.67 13.50 32.17 Up 2
14 Croatia 14.50 15.67 30.17 Up 3
15 Japan 14.67 15.33 30.00 Up 2
16 Czech Republic 0.00 28.67 28.67 New
17 Portugal 4.50 22.33 26.83 New
18 Paraguay 14.83 11.17 26.00 Up 2
19 Uruguay 4.50 17.33 21.83 New
20 Saudi Arabia 10.17 11.00 21.17 Up 4
21 Costa Rica 4.50 15.50 20.00 Up 4
22 Poland 4.00 13.00 17.00 New
23 Iran 3.00 13.67 16.67 Up 4
24 Tunisia 6.67 9.33 16.00 Up 5
25 Serbia & Montenegro 7.67 6.67 14.33 New
26 Ecuador 4.00 8.33 12.33 Up 4
27 Ukraine 0.00 6.00 6.00 New
28 Ivory Coast 0.00 5.50 5.50 New
29 Trinidad & Tobago 0.00 3.50 3.50 New
30 Ghana 0.00 2.67 2.67 New
=31 Angola 0.00 2.00 2.00 New
=31 Togo 0.00 2.00 2.00 New
The “Move” column on the right shows each team’s movement from the last table in my last column on this subject, Who will be seeded at Germany 2006: An update.
Netherlands has continued to close the gap on 8th placed France but the Dutch are going to run out of time. The French are currently ranked 5th in the world but would have to drop out of the top 10 by next month for the Netherlands (currently ranked 2nd) to have any chance of overtaking them on this table. It just won’t happen.
So if you’re a Dutch fan, here’s some advice: adopt Slovakia as your 2nd favourite team next month. Because it looks like Netherlands can only clinch a seeding if Spain stumbles and is consequently removed from this table.
Oh, and Mexican fans, I really don’t think that FIFA will shaft you by deciding to change the system at the last minute. But if they do, here’s some advice for you too: send my columns on this subject to the Mexican FA so that it has ammunition to protest with.
But let’s finish on a happy note with some honourable mentions. We know that the Dutch have come from a nearly impossible position in 2002 to put themselves in the running for a seeding, so well done to them.
How about the Croatians? They won’t be seeded but my original table in 2002 had them in 21st place. Through a combination of improved rankings and other teams falling by the wayside, Croatia is now 13th.
Then we have the Czechs. They haven’t qualified for any of the last 3 World Cup finals so their Previous World Cups score is 0. But their World Rankings have been so high that if they do qualify they’ll surge straight into the top half of the table on Ranking Points alone.
And finally, Brazil. We haven’t focussed much on Brazil because they’re so far in front. But think about this: the maximum score on this table is 64 points which would require winning the last 3 World Cups and being the No. 1 Ranked team at the end of 2003, 2004 and 2005. The Brazilians have 63.67 points with the only blemish being their loss in the 1998 World Cup Final. Take a bow.
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