On The Spot


 
Follow PWC columnist Paul Marcuccitti's World Cup diary as he travels around Germany.

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Asia’s two big chances



June 19th, 2006

    I had a nice quiet day today. After another exhausting Munich trip, and with more travelling to come, some rest was needed.

    I still made sure that I saw a telecast of all today’s matches but that doesn’t always happen. You might have seen in previous diary entries that I’ve occasionally missed seeing match telecasts during this tournament.

    Normally that wouldn’t happen because I’d be at home and able to get into a routine where I could watch every game and make sure that, if I absolutely couldn’t, I’d be able to watch it on tape not long afterwards.

    But now I’m actually at the World Cup and sometimes I simply have to miss matches because I’m travelling. Sometimes I won´t even be able to see a full replay of the games I’ve missed (though I have always managed to at least see highlights).

    It’s not a big price to pay – I’ve been enjoying this experience immensely. Nevertheless, complete analysis of the 32 nations is not something I could provide as well as others that have been able to see every kick, header and tackle.

    The good news is that I haven’t missed much of the matches featuring Asian teams. I’ve only missed the first few minutes of South Korea v Togo and the first half of Japan v Croatia (I didn’t see France v South Korea live but managed to see a full replay). So how is my home confederation doing?

    First, let’s talk about who is and isn’t a member of the Asian Football Confederation. We have Iran, Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia that qualified through AFC and we have Australia qualifying from Oceania.

    Even though Australia joined AFC on 1 January 2006, these World Cup finals are the Aussies’ last act as a member of Oceania.

    This was made quite clear at the final draw last December. Australia was not included in a pot with the AFC teams (a decision I still can’t make sense of) and that meant that the Socceroos could be drawn in a group with one of their new Asian buddies. And it happened – so we were treated to Australia v Japan in Group F.

    The overall performance of a confederation is, as you would have read elsewhere on this site, important collateral for the allocation of World Cup slots for the 2010 finals. Sure, politics plays a big role in the outcome, but if a particular confederation’s teams lose all their matches, it’s going to be quite difficult to argue for more slots in four years’ time.

    Realistically, Australia needs to be grouped with the Asian teams because it will attempt to qualify for the 2010 finals through the AFC.

    Let’s start, however, with Iran, the only AFC team that is definitely on the first plane home.

    Team Melli has shown plenty of ability but it isn’t the most experienced team and its tactics were a little too conservative. There was some bright play against Mexico and at 1-1 the Iranians looked capable of at least snatching a point. But a chaotic moment in their defence allowed Mexico to take the lead in the second half and the Tri killed off the game with another goal minutes later.

    I was able to attend the Portugal v Iran match (indeed, South Korea is the only Asian team I haven’t had at least one ticket for – if only I’d had more luck with touts the day South Korea played Togo). Again there was some good play but too little ambition. Still, Portugal needed a fine long-range strike to break the deadlock in the second half. Portugal won a penalty after more defensive indiscipline and the final score was 0-2.

    The Iranians now have their best chance to record a win, or a draw, against Angola but they can’t avoid early elimination. Their future might be a little brighter because they have a lot of young players who need a bit more experience.

    Saudi Arabia isn’t out yet but the Sons of the Desert need a near miracle to go through to the last 16.

    They haven’t played as badly as they did four years ago (that would take some doing) and showed some style when they turned a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead against Tunisia (the match ended 2-2).

    The effort against Ukraine wasn’t quite as bad as the 0-4 score suggests. (I prefer to give credit to the Ukrainians for a great performance.) Nevertheless, the Saudis didn’t force a single save and the same may happen when they play Spain. As long as their entire team plays for Saudi clubs, I can’t see them returning to the World Cup’s last 16.

    Japan is almost certain to make a first round exit as well. This team’s problem is quite obvious – no bite in attack.

    The Blues chose to defend a 1-0 lead against Australia and only broke forward with occasional counterattacks. If they were sharper with those counterattacks, they might have scored again and won the game. Eventually they were punished for sitting back so much and conceded three late goals.

    I only saw the second half of Japan’s match against Croatia and it was obvious that the Blues’ performance was better. Both teams made chances; neither could score. But the 0-0 result was a bigger blow to Japan. The Croatians know that they should reach the last 16 if they defeat Australia but the Blues are almost certainly going out, even if they record an unlikely win over Brazil.

    Along with solving their problems up forward, Japan needs a better coach. Zico may have been a star player for Brazil but the only thing he seems to have taught the Japanese team is how to playact.

    I won’t talk about the Australians at length today as I have followed them since arriving in Europe. Their equation is simple: a draw or win against Croatia will give them a place in the last 16; a loss will send them home.

    And this brings us to South Korea – currently top of the class with four points. A win or a draw against Switzerland would put the Koreans through to the next round. If Togo defeats or draws with France, they can even afford to lose.

    Whatever happens, this team has done enough to prove that Guus Hiddink and home ground advantage weren´t the only things that carried them to the 2002 semi-finals. There´s plenty of ability as well. Also note that they had the bottle to come from behind to defeat Togo and draw with France.

    South Korea and Australia are Asia´s two big chances for a place in the last 16. As the AFC achieved this four years ago with the Koreans and Japan at home, it would be a greater achievement in Germany.

    Tomorrow I return to Kaiserslautern with a ticket for Trinidad & Tobago v Paraguay. More importantly, the final round of group matches commences.

It´s an exciting time.



 
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